After decades of bloody struggle for independence, South Sudan—the world’s youngest country—finds itself teetering on the edge of another devastating civil war. Despite a hard-won peace deal and independence in 2011, old rivalries, unresolved grievances, and fragile governance have once again brought the country to a dangerous crossroads.
Fragile Peace Unravels
In 2018, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar signed a fragile peace deal to end a brutal five-year civil war that killed nearly 400,000 people and displaced millions. But today, tensions between rival factions are again escalating.
Local clashes have erupted in key regions, and political negotiations have stalled. Armed militias loyal to various ethnic groups have taken up arms, accusing the government of corruption, nepotism, and marginalization.
A UN report warned that “violence is spiraling beyond political control,” with widespread human rights abuses being reported across the country.
Ethnic Divisions and Power Struggles
Much of the unrest stems from deep-rooted ethnic rivalries, particularly between the Dinka and Nuer communities, which align with Kiir and Machar, respectively.
Power-sharing arrangements under the peace deal remain fragile, with key security reforms, elections, and transitional justice measures delayed or unimplemented.
Analysts fear that failure to resolve these disputes could trigger full-scale conflict, potentially drawing in neighboring countries and regional actors.
Humanitarian Crisis Deepens
The threat of renewed conflict comes as South Sudan faces one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Over 7.7 million people—more than 60% of the population—are facing food insecurity, according to the World Food Programme.
Flooding, economic collapse, and ongoing local violence have made it difficult for aid agencies to reach vulnerable communities. Displacement camps are swelling again as civilians flee rising violence in Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile states.
International Calls for Action
The United Nations, African Union, and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have urged South Sudan’s leaders to return to dialogue and uphold the peace agreement.
“This is a pivotal moment for South Sudan’s future,” said UN Special Representative Nicholas Haysom. “The peace process must not collapse.”
Western donors have also threatened to cut aid unless concrete steps toward elections and political reforms are taken.
A Nation at a Crossroads
As South Sudan approaches key deadlines for a planned national election in December 2024, the risk of violence derailing the fragile peace remains high.
Civic leaders warn that without genuine political will and inclusive governance, the country could slide back into the horrors of war.
“This country fought too long and paid too high a price for independence to fall back into chaos,” said a South Sudanese activist.
The next few months may decide whether the world’s youngest country can chart a peaceful path—or return to the violence that has defined much of its short history.
A country on the edge
In October, the World Bank made a bleak assessment of the situation.
Violence, weak management of public resources and “political contestation” have “intensified existing humanitarian needs,” it said.
And in a report in December, it said that more than two-thirds of the population in the oil-rich nation were extremely poor, living on less than $2.15 per day.
Despite its economic troubles, South Sudan harbors more than half a million refugees from war-torn neighbors Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic, based on data from the UN Refugee Agency.
On Friday, the UN described South Sudan as “a country on the edge,” saying it faced “multiple crises at once.”
“South Sudan may have fallen off the world’s radar … but we cannot let the situation fall over the abyss,” Guterres said.
